Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
