Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
